Numbers and Planning
What Is Your Old Customer List Worth? The Five-Minute Math
Before you spend another dollar on new leads, run the numbers on the ones you already have. A simple worked example shows how list size, average job, and a few conservative assumptions turn into a real figure.
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Your old customer list is worth roughly: number of people you can reach, times the share who book, times the share of bookings that turn into jobs, times your average job value. The worked example below uses deliberately conservative assumptions. Swap in your own numbers to see what yours might be worth.
Most owners can tell you their cost per lead from ads to the dollar. Very few can tell you what their own customer list is worth. That is a strange gap, because the list is usually the cheapest money in the business: those people already know you, already trusted you once, and already cost you something to win.
What goes into the math?
Five inputs, and you probably know most of them already:
- List size. Past customers, open estimates, missed calls, and old inquiries.
- Reachable share. Not every number still works. Old lists lose contacts over time.
- Booking rate. The share of reachable people who book an appointment.
- Close rate. The share of appointments that turn into paid work.
- Average job value. What a typical job is worth to you.
A worked example: a roofer with 1,200 old leads
The numbers below are illustrative, not a promise or a benchmark. They are intentionally on the cautious side.
| Step | Assumption | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Old leads and past customers | Starting list | 1,200 |
| Still reachable | 70% | 840 |
| Book an inspection | 3% of reachable | about 25 |
| Become paid jobs | 30% of inspections | about 7 |
| Average job value | $9,000 | about $63,000 |
Seven jobs out of 1,200 names is a modest result. It still adds up to a meaningful number for a roofing company, from people who were already in the files.
What if my numbers are different?
They will be. Here is the same list with three sets of assumptions, so you can see how much each input moves the answer.
| Cautious | Middle | Strong | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reachable | 60% | 70% | 80% |
| Book | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Close | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Jobs from 1,200 names | about 4 | about 7 | about 17 |
| At $9,000 a job | about $36,000 | about $63,000 | about $153,000 |
The point is not the exact figure. It is that even the cautious column is real money, and the biggest levers are things you control: how quickly replies get answered and how personal the outreach is.
Run it for your own business
Grab a calculator and fill in:
(list size) × (reachable share) × (booking rate) × (close rate) × (average job value)
A few examples with the middle assumptions above:
- HVAC, 2,000 past customers, $650 average service or repair: 2,000 × 70% × 3% × 30% × $650 ≈ $8,200, before counting the replacement jobs that a tune-up often uncovers.
- Med spa, 900 lapsed clients, $450 average visit: 900 × 70% × 3% × 30% × $450 ≈ $2,600 in first visits, and more over time, because a returning client tends to keep coming back.
What does the math leave out?
A few things that usually make the real value higher:
- Repeat business. A customer who comes back once often stays.
- Referrals and reviews. Reconnected customers refer neighbors and leave reviews.
- "Not now" replies. Some of today's maybes are next season's jobs.
And one thing that can make it lower: if replies are slow or nobody follows up, booking rates fall fast. The list is only worth what you can actually answer.
Common questions
Are these booking rates guaranteed?
No. They are illustrative. Real results depend on your list, your industry, how long it has been since customers heard from you, and how well replies are handled.
What counts as "reachable"?
A working phone number or email address for someone who did business with you or reached out to you. Numbers that bounce, duplicates, and people who asked not to be contacted come off the list.
Is it worth it for a small list?
Run the math. If one or two jobs would cover the effort, a few hundred names can be enough.
A note on how we work. Rekindle IQ is a free matching service. We may be paid by the partner companies we match you with, never by you. Nothing here is a promise of income, and results vary with the opportunity, the market and the effort you put in.
